Pakistan ki bairooni maliyati position kamzor hone ka khadsha, IMF ki tanbeeh

Islamabad: Aalmi maliyati fund (IMF) ne khabardar kiya hai ke daramadat mein izafe aur tarseelat-e-zar ki raftar mein kami ke baais Pakistan ki bairooni maliyati position kamzor ho sakti hai.

Media report ke mutabiq IMF ne zar-e-mubadla ke zakhair ko mehfooz rakhne ke liye sharah-e-mubadla mein lachak barqarar rakhne aur barhti Mehngai par qaboo pane ke liye monetary policy mazeed sakht karne par zor diya hai.

Yeh mushahidat IMF ki Middle East aur wasti Asia se mutalliq ilaqai report mein pesh kiye gaye, jo guzishta hafte Aalmi bank aur IMF ke salana ijlason ke ek hafte baad guzishta roz jari hui.

Report ke mutabiq daramiyani muddat mein Misr, Urdun aur Morocco ki bairooni maliyati position mein behtari ki tawaqqo hai, jis ki wajah ajnas ki kam qeematein aur baraamadat mein tanawwo hoga. Taham Pakistan ki bairooni position kamzor ho sakti hai, kyunke daramadat barhne aur tarseelat-e-zar kam hone ki tawaqqo hai.

IMF ne Pakistan ke jari khate ka khasara majmui qaumi paidawar ke ek feesad, yaani taqriban 4.5 arab dollar tak pahunchne ki paishgoi ki hai. Yeh takhmina hukumat ke taqriban 2.5 arab dollar ke sarkari andaze se kahin ziyada hai.

Maliyati zarooriyat aur qarze

Pakistan ki majmui bairooni maliyati zarooriyat GDP ke 22 se 25 feesad tak rehne ka imkan hai, jo hum palla mumalik ke muqable mein numayan tor par ziyada hai aur mukhtalif maliyati khatraat ka baais ban sakti hain.

Report mein hukumat aur tijarati banks ke gehre talluq ka bhi zikr hai. IMF ke andaze ke mutabiq banks ke majmui asasson ya sarmaya kari mein sarkari qarzon se mutalliq exposure 63 feesad hai, jo ubharti hui maeeshaton ki umoomi satah se kahin ziyada hai.

IMF ne khabardar kiya ke hukumati qarzon mein izafe se hukumat ke liye qarz lene ki laagat bunyadi takhminon se ziyada ho sakti hai, jis se Misr aur Pakistan jaise mumalik mein maliyati istehkam ke masail mazeed sangeen hone ka khadsha hai.

Sharah-e-sood aur rupay ki qadr

Hukumat rupay ki qadr mein kami ki ijazat dene ki kisi bhi tajweez par mohtat hai, kyunke is se Mehngai barhne ka khadsha hai aur baraamadat ko haqeeqi faida pahunchne ke imkanat bhi wazeh nahin.

Interbank market mein amriki dollar ke muqable mein Pakistani rupee ek paisa mazboot ho kar 276.85 rupay par raha.

Report ke mutabiq jahan Mehngai pehle hi hadaf se ziyada ho aur policy nisbatan narm ho, wahan mumalik ko monetary policy sakht karne ke liye tayyar rehna chahiye. Markazi bank ki policy sharah-e-sood andazan ghair janib-dar satah se kam hoti hai, jo Kyrgyzstan aur Pakistan mein ziyada numayan hai.

IMF ke mutabiq tanaza shuru hone ke baad mukhtalif mumalik ne apne sharah-e-mubadla ke nizam ke mutabiq sharah-e-sood se mutalliq iqdamat kiye. Lachakdar sharah-e-mubadla rakhne wale mumalik mein Pakistan wahid mulk tha jis ne tanaza shuru hone ke baad sharah-e-sood mein izafa kiya.

IMF ne Pakistan ki maashi taraqqi ki paishgoi 3.5 feesad par barqarar rakhi hai. Yeh sharah hukumat ke chaar feesad ke sarkari hadaf se kam aur Aalmi bank ke takhmine se bhi neeche hai.

Maliyati mahaz par IMF ke mutabiq khitte ki mutaddid maeeshaton mein 2026 ke dauran maliyati policy nisbatan narm rehne ki tawaqqo hai, jabke 2027 se maliyati istehkam aur akhrajat mein zabt ki policy dobara shuru ho sakti hai.